Category Bolts Up Daily

Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established. ZENTA is an interesting runner here for the same stable and JP McManus’ retained rider Mark Walsh takes the ride. She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections. She only made she Irish debut about 3 weeks ago and ploughed through every hurdle but hit the line strong. The overall performance was impressive considering how much she did wrong, and I expect her to massively improve for it.

NFL Tips: Texans to batter Jets in Thursday night’s 18/1 Bet Builder

While we aren’t going to head into too much detail here, The Statistical Lay, Back the Beaten Favourite, and The Dutching System all have armies of followers. Betfair has a similar price commitment to Paddy Power in terms of odds, and they also put their money where their mouth is in terms of bonuses and other promos for racing fans. Still, there are plenty of race meets available at the big-name bookmakers for those intent on live streaming their bets. The quality of the streams available is strong at the top end, although as always, it would be nice if more races were available on live stream – even though the likes of Betfair pledge to stream all UK and Irish races through their platform. That said, there are still some strategies that can be deployed for leveraging opportunities in-play, though you would be advised to live stream the race while you’re betting on any in-play event. Paddy Power and Betfair are ahead of the pack here with their range of in-play options, which are handily accessible so you make quick decisions after the race has got underway.

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 6 👇🏼

FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock. The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Seabank Bistro repeats the feat this time around and is worth a small each-way wager. The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses. When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 122%.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Marlborough’s preview and tips

If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don’t see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle.

Horse racing tips: Newcastle, Southwell and Chelmsford – Thursday October 31

Just imagine as they freewheel down the hill if he can exclaim, “Jack Kennedy and Samcro are making ground, he hasn’t moved a muscle”. 1m 7f  of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior? He goes off at even-money after being punted into odds-on before the start. Altior looked to be struggling but his jockey held him together.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. Hillview Hideaway, GotheringtonA superb, luxury holiday home, Hillview Hideaway is your Cotswold haven for exploring Cheltenham and its history. With its own private patio and a fabulous hot tub, it also has a bright and spacious feel with an open-plan kitchen-dining-living area, and a breathtaking mezzanine bedroom. This year marks the Centenary of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A story that began in 1924, the Gold Cup has since mushroomed to become one of the world’s most renowned steeplechases.

• Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner.
• £/€10 min stake on Casino slots within 30 days of registration.
• AU FLEURON holds an each-way squeak in what is a typically tough handicap hurdle to conclude the Cheltenham Festival.
• For example, you might be able to claim free bets up to a certain amount across specific races as a new user at the site.
• High quality Saturday with the second day at Wetherby who feature a pair of Grade Two races plus a Listed.
• It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price.

More from betting

There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap. Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound. 2023 less markets were traded – 17,459 – but a with a similar profit to 2022. 2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded. Then you will love the 2022 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide in association with the Sporting Life. A firm favourite with punters for nearly two decades, the guide is now in its 23rd consecutive year and back better than ever before.

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 3 👇🏼

So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.

Two Cheltenham Festival Side Bets to Consider

“At Doncaster and Sandown he maybe had to run to the level he showed last year to win them, but I think even with defeat in the Lockinge, his run told us he was a Group One horse and today confirmed it. “I’m delighted for my team, everyone works so hard at home. Docklands emerged from the chasing pack to lay down a challenge, but Charyn had enough in the tank to repel the runner-up and had two-and-a-quarter lengths in hand at the line. In accounting for stablemate Haatem in the Irish Guineas he as expected got back on track, and duly lined up against a very deep field in the day one highlight at Royal Ascot.

Read more in horse racing

SPECIAL TIARA Bold front runner who capitalised on Douvan’s injury to win this race a year ago. Well beaten by Altior at Sandown Bolts Up Daily later and he looks to have had his day in the sun. ALTIOR Grand chaser who seeks his third consecutive win at the festival.

And, of course, that’s absolutely fine because – remember – the number one takeaway from these million words is, Choose Your Battles. Play where you know most, and where you’re as comfortable as possible with what you don’t know. Like which trainers, and which of their horses, might leap forward on handicap bow. Even at relatively short odds of 7/2, there may be a losing run of 27 or 28 bets in a 1000 race sample; so we have to be set up, emotionally and financially, to deal with that. Betting is fun, perhaps more so on horses than most other sports because of the speed with which the result is known; that rapid production of endorphins induced by the short duration of a race compared with, say, a football match. This doesn’t look to be the deepest Novice hurdle so UNIVERSAL DAVE may well be able to shoulder a penalty and land a second career success.

Best Site For In-Play Betting

By diving deeper into these resources, you can gain a better understanding of the form and trends in horse racing, allowing you to make more informed wagers. The tips offered by our platform have proven to be instrumental in helping customers make well-informed decisions when placing bets, leading to more wins. Accessible horse racing tips are what most punters are looking for.

At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses. Specifically, we’ll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile – and at what sort of an overall speed. All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years. He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous. Fitting the historical profile more snugly is the Gordon Elliott inmate, Run Wild Fred, who represents Gigginstown and is ridden by Jamie Codd. Codd has piloted the winner in three of the last six renewals where amateur jockeys contested (professionals last year due to Covid), two of the three coming for Elliott.

Horse Race Betting Systems

You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Ayr Racecourse section for links to these. Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap, that stallion Invincible Spirit has produced 2 winners (2019,2016). The course which has produced the most winners of the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap is York, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at York last time out.

Horse racing tips

They are living, breathing animals that we cherish and love. A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one. I love a lot of sports but horseracing has something extra special about it – so special, in fact, that I left Premier League football to present horseracing on ITV. All told, over the course of 406 bets advised during this free trial period, a profit of 138 points @ 22.79% ROI was made. This free service ran from March 2022 to August 2022 and was a resounding success, making a 138 point profit at 22.79% ROI over the course of 406 bets. Applying those negative filters would have left 375 qualifiers.

• VADREAM looks a spot of value to win this for a second time.
• The horses on the racecards are laid out in market order, with the number of the horse at the start of the line.
• By providing detailed analyses, predictions, and insider knowledge, punters can make informed decisions and increase their chances of securing profitable returns.
• We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time.
• The Festival’s most prolific jockey has gone to hospital with a suspected broken leg.
• Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground.
• Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option.
• Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market.

• Opening meeting of the jumps season at Newcastle plus Stratford on Thursday.
• It is important to always gamble responsibly and to never bet more than you can afford to lose.
• Fifteen is also a neat number as we can easily compare 5–year periods (2008–2012; 2013–2017; 2018–2022) to see what, if anything has changed.
• Mill about long enough and you might catch a glimpse of famous trainers and jockeys weaving between the racecourse and town.
• Raasel was in front that day but the selection has a fine chance of turning the tables.
• Venetia Williams’ wildly experienced novice, Royale Pagaille, looks to have stamina as his strong suit.
• Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.
• That is why they have been the world’s favourite betting medium for hundreds of year – you really can study the form (see below) and use it to pick winners.
• He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn’t quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards.

He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day. Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort. He could easily bounce back but is not the ‘gimme’ he looked going into the November meeting.

All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro – and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it

To frame this year’s expectation, we need to look backwards. Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g. Mullins’ 2020 Festival win percentage was his second best of the past five Festivals; it was his best of five Festivals on each of EW%, PRB, IV, and A/E. So we’ll use IV, PRB and A/E as way points to navigate to a conclusion; but against which period(s) should we measure performance?

• Again, Betfair and Paddy Power have the largest availability of live streaming events, closely followed by SkyBet.
• AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time.
• Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP.
• 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle.
• Amber Cottage, Cheltenham A cosy, semi-detached, holiday home built in traditional, honey-coloured Cotswold stone made even more fantastic thanks to shared facilities including an outdoor swimming pool.
• Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time.
• 2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded.
• Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun.

Earlier on the programme, CHECKANDCHALLENGE can keep Will Buick’s in-form run going in the Group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2.25). This is the right level for the three-year-old, who still has plenty of potential on the back of his solid effort last time out. MITBAAHY is fancied to win the battle of the fastest horses on Goodwood’s card in the King George Qatar Stakes (3.35). He has plenty of gears and the drop to 5f worked the oracle last time. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was contesting Group 1 contests by the end of the season.

Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).

I’d rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I’m swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well. A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since.

The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown. Not only is Kenny Alexander’s mare the reigning champ but she is also unbeaten in 14 career starts under Rules and, before that, a single point to point. The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there. Haut En Couleurs has plenty of untapped potential and could usurp the finishers from that race if standing up. The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it).

Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro. “The horse is very good. I wasn’t happy with the position I had during the race, but he’s such a good horse that he got me through.” Teenager Jack Kennedy made sure there was no hard luck story by keeping out of trouble on the outside and cruised into contention on the final bend, taking up the running from Vision Des Flos.

The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year’s Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices’ Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge. Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago.

Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price. There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.

LH – Thyme Hill form awful, the time was “glacial” 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he’ll enjoy downhill sections of the track. MT – Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn’t run him in this race!

There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022. The first handicap of the week and one that normally goes to a runner close to the head of the market. Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Hurdle Micro System

Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday. Since the early days, horse racing has grown from royal entertainment into big business. For most bookies, it remains their bread and butter, alongside football and tennis as the most popularly wagered sports. So you’ve done the legwork, found the perfect horse racing bookmaker, but now what? Well, it’s time to lay down a bet, and it really couldn’t be easier.

Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1’s (excl. Bumper & Triumph Hurdle)

And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up. The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he’s since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season’s Gold Cup. That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.

The best bookmaker offers

So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. LH – Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too.

They’re off in the Champion Chase

And you have to be imaginative to see the horses lower down the lists beating the ones at the top. In that spirit, I’ll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy. A maximum field of 24 horses are set to compete in this year’s renewal.

Timeform

The Mullins third string is an unbeaten-in-one ‘could be anything’ type called Bring On The Night. A progressive three-year-old when trained in France by Andre Fabre, it was nigh on two years thereafter that he made his timber debut at Naas. Impressive he was, too, coming right away from a large field of maidens in spite of bungling the final flight. It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then. Willie was quite bullish about his ability in recent stable tour chat but I thought he might have gone Ballymore rather than here.

The starter drops the flag and they’re off

The favourite, and very short at that, is trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Mrs S Ricci, and he is called Gaelic Warrior. Still a maiden after three hurdle starts in France he has a mark of just 129 which compares very favourably with his French peg of 63kg (multiply by 2.2 to get 138.6 pounds, making GW ten pounds ‘well in’). In his most recent start, Gaelic Warrior was outpaced on heavy ground before finishing strongly to take third of 14. The second horse, Golden Son, has since won a Grade 2 before claiming runner up honours in a G1; while the winner, Sans Bruit, has won a Grade 3 and been third in a Grade 2. Let’s start on home shores and Constitution Hill has looked all class in a pair of facile Sandown scores to date, trouncing a field of maidens before treating his Grade 1 Tolworth rivals with similar disdain.

Saratoga Tips

Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle. Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved.

Claim over £300 in free bets & new customer offers

He really had to step at a few of the obstacles, but his engine proved far superior to his other graded rivals. Connections probably have eyes on the Gold Cup 2022 after that Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners display. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet Value Bet Price Guarantee

Like all humans, trainers are creatures of habit, so get to know theirs. Some will have really good records at certain tracks and really poor records at others. Some will have regular quiet spells at particular times of the year and other spells when the winners readily flow.

Horse racing in the UK

We now only have eight winners, from 291 runners, but an SP profit of 40 points. At BSP, for the reason highlighted above, it becomes a juicy 341 points. Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).

Our Scout and Trader picked out the following bets for the final Race 👇🏼

In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.

• Good to soft has a similar, if slightly more consistent for prior winners of one to three on the same ground, profile.
• But there’s a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin.
• Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.
• Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date.
• ‘4’ signifies an early front runner, ‘3’ a prominent racer early, ‘2’ a midfield runner, and ‘1’ a hold up type.
• I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.
• Contributing to creating and maintaining this Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren.

She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.

Runners and race-by-race tips for Goodwood on Friday

That was a maiden hurdle which he won by 19 lengths, beating little of consequence. He looks to have a good bit to find, though it’s possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above). Once you’ve made your selection, click the odds button in line with your horse and a window will appear showing the best bookmakers in the industry to provide you with a choice of where to back it.

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible. With three or four habitual waited-with sorts in opposition, which if any have shown the ability to quicken off a potentially false gallop? Our Fast Finishers report suggests the well-backed Dingle, but only tentatively at best. The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.

Ayr Gold Cup Past Winners

Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).

Horse racing tips: Newcastle, Southwell and Chelmsford – Thursday October 31

True, since transferred to Closutton he’s won his maiden by a street, but again that form looks shallower than the toddlers’ end at your local baths. He’s pretty exposed is this chap and he’s shown very little. Of course, he can win, but there’s now’t in the book to say he should. Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He’d started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched.

• 10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
• Look at how the horse is built, how he walks, his presence and demeanour.
• Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place.
• You could not wish to meet a nicer guy than Daryl, and there is nobody better at holding up a horse, so I have given him his riding instructions and told him to creep into the race.
• This will help you understand how the horse might fare in today’s race.

I feel like the quicker they go the better for him, as he looks a very strong stayer. Marine Nationale was the early season poster boy – and he might perhaps be the late season heartthrob, too, except that we’ve not seen him since early December; his form has taken a few dents in the interim. Mr Vango has it to do on the ratings and the other three all met in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last time, where Henry’s Friend held off Kilbeg King and Apple Away. It may look surprising that the winner is now the outsider of that trio, but he is the one least likely to stay this six-furlong longer trip, and I’m in agreement with the betting market, for all I like the horse. Love Envoi, winner of the Mares’ Novices Hurdle here in 2022, finished a 1 ½ length second to Honeysuckle in this race last year.

Racing against the far rail from a draw in stall one, David Egan got bumped and bored when attempting to get through on the run to the final furlong, just as Raasel swept to the front down the outside. A neck separated the pair at the winning post, with Existent back in fourth and Equilateral, who also had a hard-luck story to tell, fnishing sixth. Roger Varian’s sprinter was unlucky not to take the spoils at Sandown, enduring a troubled passaged over the minimum trip. Raasel was in front that day but the selection has a fine chance of turning the tables. I’ve been quietly backing Tiger Roll all winter to win the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.

On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name. I’ve backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven’t got a clue who wins.

He’s no longer an each way price so I hope he’ll go very close to winning. Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised Bolts Up Daily tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola.